OSL Trader View | Weekend Digest

Friday April 3, 2020  

Seeing green.

$BTC has layered the screen in green throughout the week as it grinds higher, scraping the upper Bollinger band. 

The intraday moves have been pretty interesting. Unlike traditional assets - where the markets are generally in sync from Asia, through Europe, on to the Americas - the digital assets market feels tribal. The abrupt moves are quite frequently initiated either when Asia rocks up to work, or when the Americans do. It’s almost as if the Asian and American players do not have the same view of the market and spend their days trying to reverse one another’s overnight moves. Perhaps because funds that have a presence on both sides of the world are uncommon? 

The one thing the World is finally beginning to gain common ground on is the severity of COVID-19. President Trump for one, has admitted that there is a genuine crisis in hand, for the first time, as total confirmed cases in the US eclipse the next two countries combined. 

Things are not looking well as we approach Q1 earnings season… While shareholders may get a glimpse of the full impact of COVID-19, as it impacts the tail-end of the quarter, the majority of them will be left thinking how much more damage can be expected when the full brunt of its wrath faces them down in Q2? Earnings projections may inevitably have to downgrade and it might just be that the musical chairs of companies borrowing, to reward shareholders, might be on its last chord. There is no doubt HSBC (5 HK) is looking for its chair. 

 This is actually a punch in the gut and a slap in the face as the typically back-loaded quarterly payout schedule was never guided lower before they dropped the bomb. The crickets came along with a cancellation of all share buyback and cancellation plans. 

And to wrap it all up, you have the government debasing your wealth like no other - printing green on top of green!  This may not seem like much...

But, if you take a step back...

..things might look a little different:

Additionally, many are pointing to the stock-to-flow ratio that is soon to be boosted by the halvening - just around the corner - as one reason to believe a commensurate rise in prices is inevitable. This may well be true for the marginal miners, but the strategy miners deploy on their accumulated mining rewards appears to be pretty diverse from the white-knuckled HODLer to the more ambitious trader. Binance certainly thinks there is more juice left in the game as they join Huobi & OkEx in the mining business by launching the Binance Mining Pool. 

It is certainly encouraging to see that the adoption of bitcoin has continued to trend top right. 

The earlier adopters have stayed put: 

Source: Glassnode

While we saw more newbies enter the fray:

Source: Glassnode

Can’t wait to see what comes at us next week…hoping to see more $BTC green! TGIF! Happy Trading.


May the trend be your friend.  



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