August 12, 2021

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $46,704
$BTC 24 Hour Low $45,297
$BTC 0.1% past 24 hours; 15.0% past 7 days

Price undecided on direction, Alts starting to outperform

Good morning. $BTC futures premium has dropped to 7% (June 2022 expiry), with funding rates no higher than 0.01% across major exchanges (even negative on one). The Greyscale discount is also returned to -10%, suggesting a cooling demand for funds.

The trading volumes of BTC and ETH also dropped, indicating their latest price increases don’t hold the same strength as before. Our advice is to stay cautious and don’t succumb to FOMO. 

When we look at BTC, its trading volume has been flat since yesterday, while 200d MA is holding for now. $BTC had attempted to move higher twice but failed at 46,700 on both occasions.  $BTC was testing the Fibonacci retracement level, and it is now pulling back.

Momentum indicators of BTC are stalling, with RSI at 70 and MACD EMAs also moving closer together. A potential divergence is building on RSI (see chart), but we can only validate it if $BTC drops below 37.5K. Are we going to see a repeat of a few weeks ago where $BTC faked out above 42.5K, then corrected and tested at 37K, before moving higher?

$ETH has continued to push higher and may yet test new highs. The rotation from BTC to ETH and other Alts are likely to impact BTC — the trading volume of BTC has already declined, and its momentum indicators are slowing down as well.

A pull back can come at any time and the sentiment could change instantly. Will ETH drop to 2400? Bear in mind that it is only 25% from the current price level, a correction size that is not unusual in this market. While it is relatively unlikely, it’s never an impossibility. For investors that are keen to buy ETH, be prepared should a pull back eventuate. 

After days of struggling to reach a consensus over amendments to the $1T infrastructure bill yesterday, the Senate passed the bill with a bipartisan 69-30 vote. The bill now heads to the House floor where the previous language to clarify the definition of a “broker” for tax-reporting purposes that might encapsulate miners, blockchain operators, software and hardware developers was compromised. The compromise was to exclude miners and transaction validators from tax reporting but Senators Shelby and Sanders argued over allowing the amendments onto the floor, effectively shuttling this crypto deal. The House will be in recess until September 20 and so for now, the taxation requirements on crypto-related businesses are still in limbo.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.97T, +2.1% from yesterday
  • $BTC is up 0.1% at time of writing, support / resistance – 44,526 / 46,759
  • $BTC liquidations and funding: $73.14M, 0.0019% average
  • $ETH is up 0.4% at time of writing, support / resistance – 3,069 / 3,267
  • $ETH liquidations and funding: $68.69M, -0.0045% average

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $81.17B
  • $ETC up 4.59% in the last 24 hours, up ~20.47% in the past week 
  • $XLM up 8.55% in the last 24 hours, up ~23.79% in the past week
  • $AXS down 9.36% in the last 24 hours, up ~50.53% in the past week
  • $KLAY up 18.50% in the last 24 hours, up ~42.78% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Emilia Lee, Ethan Fu & Stefan von Haenisch.

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