$BTC chops sideways despite Tradfi markets tumble

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $39,557  / Low $37,170   |   $BTC -1.0% Past 24 hours; -0.5% Past 7 days

Good morning. $BTC’s correlation to gold was short-lived – the selling pressure across the market intensified as “extreme fear” is still dominating the market based on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. That said, crypto inflows tripled last week to the highest in almost three months of $127M, seeing a major inflow into the Americas and net outflows in Europe. Another key market spotlight is the executive order that President Biden is set to sign this week, which outlines the U.S. government’s strategy for digital assets oversight.

Despite the equities market continuing to tank, $BTC has held strength and continued chopping sideways over the past 24 hours. Though $BTC is trading above the key support at $37,000, the upside hurdle at $39,500 is holding strong. We expect $BTC to continue cooling over the next few weeks as prices are getting squeezed into a triangle pattern (see the chart). The macro bullish market structure over the past 1.5 years remains intact unless prices drop below $29,000. Trading volumes are trending lower as market participants on the sidelines are waiting for a more definitive direction. 

Compared to $BTC, altcoins were hit harder by the equity market weakness, with $ETH faring a touch worse as expected. The No. 2 digital asset is finding support at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of the impulse higher from February 24. $2,292 serves as our longer-term support and any drop to this level may provide a great buying opportunity for those looking to build positions in the long run. The overall risk concerns in global markets continue to grow. Should a global liquidity crunch occur, $ETH could see a rapid dip towards its previous cycle’s ATH of $1,400. 

With the Russia/Ukraine geopolitical conflict now approaching week 2, more companies pull out or restrict services to their Russian client base. The “Iron Firewall” has been erected with Visa/Mastercard and now PayPal stopping services, along with entertainment platforms such as Netflix/TikTok restricting theirs. Even Twitch has stopped paying its Russian content creators, which could severely impact its citizens who make their living online. Oil from Russia is being shunned, with oil tankers refusing to ship it and western traders refusing to trade it as sanction rules continue to evolve.

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.77T, -3.1% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.42% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 95.53M, +0.00050% average
  • $ETH is +0.57% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 67.66M, +0.00156% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.51%; USDC 28.42%; BUSD 9.79%; UST 7.52%; DAI 5.14%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $191.85B (-3.52% over last 24h)
  • $SOL -2.0% in the last 24 hours, -4.1% in the past week
  • $SHIB -1.9% in the last 24 hours, -2.7% in the past week
  • $SAND -1.0% in the last 24 hours, -4.8% in the past week
  • $ENJ -1.1% in the last 24 hours, -5.0% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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