$BTC plunges below $40K, lowest since mid-March

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $42,399.07 / Low $39,443.90  |   $BTC -6.2% Past 24 hours; -15% Past 7 days

Good morning. We witnessed an accelerated pullback over the last 24 hours, dragging the digital assets markets down by approximately 6%. But, there was no real change in Bitcoin’s dominance (currently at 41.76%), so we are convinced that this is a general risk-off across the market rather than a panic selling. Otherwise, we would expect to see a rotation from altcoins into BTC as investors scrambled to load up on the ‘least risky’ digital asset.

$BTC also plummeted by 5% within 24 hours, diving below $40,000 for the first time in three weeks. Though we expect a slight relief bounce for $BTC over the day, investors should prepare for another round of selling. A bullish signal would be a weekly close at or above this price level since this is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement for the currently impulsive move since February. Based on the pitchfork support and resistance lines projected from the first and second leg of the current bull market, we see a price testing at a strong macro support level. This is another reason we anticipate the weekly candle closing at the current level for a bullish continuation.  

$ETH dropped aggressively and hit our short-term target of 1.618 Fibonacci retracement extension at $2,983. Previous local top from the beginning of March also came in at this level, where we see a confluence of support factors. At this stage, we wouldn’t rule out a further dip to the low $2,900s. If $BTC begins to gather more strength, we should see $ETH consolidate at these levels. Since January, the market has experienced the highest amount of long liquidations, so keep an eye on this as more positions could be liquidated below these current levels.


Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.92T, -6.3% from yesterday
  • $BTC is -6.3% at time of writing
  • $ETH is -7% at time of writing
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 44.06%; USDC 27.17%; BUSD 9.52%; UST 8.94%; DAI 4.7%


Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $208.09B (-48% over last 24h)
  • $SOL -9.9% in the last 24 hours, -24.4% in the past week
  • $SHIB -9.3% in the last 24 hours, -16.4% in the past week
  • $SAND -6.5% in the last 24 hours, -21.9% in the past week
  • $ENJ -6.6% in the last 24 hours, -13.2% in the past week


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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch & Ethan Fu.


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