Crypto bloodbath: $BTC plunges over 50% below its ATH

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $34,238  / Low $30,050 |   $BTC -11.8% Past 24 hours; -21.9% Past 7 day

Good morning. Crypto and the TradFi dived aggressively amid weakness in the macroeconomy and growing recession fears. In the past 24 hours, $BTC plunged below $30,000 from its ATH of $69,000 last November. Stablecoin TerraUSD (UST), which briefly depegged for the second time in three days, also fell below $0.7 at one point.

Not only are the bears behind the steer, but they have also invalidated $BTC’s entire bullish market structure. Nevertheless, we expect a slight relief bounce today. But, if $BTC fails to hold the July low of last year, it would face a steep fall to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension for the impulsive move lower. The flat funding rates imply that the current sell-off is spot-driven. Almost $1 billion of positions have been liquidated across the digital asset markets in the past 24 hours – the highest we have seen this year, showing leveraged longs have also been hit hard by it. 

Given $BTC didn’t spend much time in the $20,000-30,000 zone historically, we look to the periods of price consolidation during the run-up of December 2021 to understand where support levels might be if we continue lower. If it continues to grind lower, major support levels are $26,000, followed by $22,000-24,000 and the ATH in 2017 at $20,000 over the next few months.

$ETH filled the wick of January low early today, with initial support at $2,182. Considering the overall outperformance of altcoins relative to $BTC during the entire bull run, we expect altcoins to suffer more as these markets continue to grind lower. Should we fail to hold the January low of $2,162, $ETH will slide further towards our next target at $1,720 in the coming months. We expect the 50M EMA to move higher over the next few months and act as additional support at this level. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s dominance, currently at 42%, has not moved too much. If capitulation starts to take shape, this value may move higher towards 60%. 

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that collectors and creators of NFTs could exhibit their digital collectibles on Facebook and Instagram. Moreover, Spark AR Studio will carry through augmented reality support for NFTs on Instagram stories. A confirmed roll-out date has not been declared yet; however, Zuckerberg hinted that NFT mint support and NFTs, powered by ETH, Polygon, Solana and Flow would be arriving in the coming months. 

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.46T, -11.9% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +1.64% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 352.94M, -0.00706% average
  • $ETH is +1.92% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 351.51M, 0.01144% average 
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 45.88%; USDC 26.81%; UST 8.64%; BUSD 9.56%; DAI 3.95%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $157.15B (-10.22% over last 24 hours)
  • $SOL -10.0% in the last 24 hours, -22.3% in the past week
  • $SHIB -23.7% in the last 24 hours, -32.5% in the past week
  • $SAND -15.3% in the last 24 hours, -20.8% in the past week
  • $ENJ -20.2% in the last 24 hours, -29.8% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch, Tiffany Wee & Ethan Fu.


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