Crypto saw a healthy pullback. Beware of volatile weekend ahead

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $47,625 / Low $45,200   |   $BTC -3.1% Past 24 hours; +3.6% Past 7 days

Good morning and happy Friday. The crypto markets were trending lower with $BTC, and CME futures witnessed a sharp drop on 1Q’s last trading day, filling the price gap between $44,600 and $46,700 found last weekend. Given the renewed risk-on sentiment in the market, we may see a volatile weekend ahead as key support is being tested.

Over the past 24 hours, $BTC failed to hold above $47,000 and is now testing the support at $45,500. This price level has acted as crucial resistance for the whole year so far. We view this as a healthy pullback but should it fail further, and it will likely retrace to the next support at $43,735. The daily MACD technical indicator shows that the bullish momentum has receded over the last three days, so we can’t rule out the possibility of seeing a sell signal over the weekend. While $BTC remains bullish in the short term, let’s keep an eye on a potentially volatile weekend.

Altcoins have begun to outperform $BTC, with Bitcoin’s dominance retracing to approximately 42%. There is further room for Bitcoin’s dominance to fall though as RSI has slid lower since the end of January and remained relatively neutral. $ETH is currently retesting the key support at $3,275, which previously acted as resistance and indicated the local top from February 10. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension continues to hold as resistance. If we see a pullback over the weekend, $3,050 is expected to be tested. This is also where the daily RSI would meet the weekly RSI, which has provided decent support and good buying opportunities since early February.

Founder of Block (Square) Jack Dorsey was invited by the Congressional democrats to speak about digital assets in a private Q&A session yesterday. Concerns raised over crypto during the closed-door session include excessive use of energy, anti-money laundering and limited circulation (deemed as an ineffective mode of payment). Dorsey was quoted as saying that they “want to build services and don’t want to be a Visa or Mastercard. We want to be an open medium for everyone in the world”. 

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.19T, -2.7% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.37% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 73.14M, +0.00607% average
  • $ETH is +0.57% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 44.22M, +0.01098% average 
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.85%; USDC 27.64%; BUSD 9.34%; UST 8.74%; DAI 4.91%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $221.94B (-0.45% over last 24h)
  • $SOL +2.7% in the last 24 hours, +21.4% in the past week
  • $SHIB -5.4% in the last 24 hours, +5.6% in the past week
  • $SAND -3.5% in the last 24 hours, -0.4% in the past week
  • $ENJ +3.4% in the last 24 hours, +8.8% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch & Ethan Fu.

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