Crypto sell-off takes place as bears take over

​​$BTC 24 Hour High  $42,984  / Low $39,778  |   $BTC -3.0% Past 24 hours; +1.2% Past 7 days 

Good morning and happy Friday. Crypto saw a dramatic pullback overnight, with $BTC receding to the trading range we had been in for the last 1.5 weeks. To avoid sliding further down, $BTC needs to hold above the next support at $39,300. $BTC’s sensitivity to pullbacks in Tradfi skyrocketed as its correlation reached an all-time at 0.96 against Nasdaq 100 and 0.95 against S&P 500. Further market fears in the TradFi market are set to amplify its negative impact on $BTC. If we look at today’s option expiries, the maximum pain point is $41,500, so those included at the large put option volume at $41,000 should be pleased. Besides, the Call / Put ratio is at 0.82, suggesting option traders are betting more heavily on a bearish market in the short term. 

$ETH followed suit and dipped below the 111D and 50D MA. It’s more than likely for the No. 2 digital asset to test $2,910 at the very least, which is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level between March 14’s low and April 4’s high. As most options expiring in the month are at $3,800 and $3,500, the put option holders should be overjoyed. It’s quite interesting to see that the Put/Call ratio is much closer to 1, yet leverage among speculators using the futures markets is much more aggressive. The options market is almost neutral, while the futures markets are betting more aggressively on lower prices. At this stage, we expect sideways trading over the weekend, but the markets will be leaning slightly more bearish in the next few weeks. 

BTC spot exchange reserve hits a four-year low with the industry embracing the ‘HODL’ approach. On April 14, $BTC had its biggest exchange outflow in five weeks, with $1.04 billion BTC leaving crypto exchanges within a 24-hour span. The implications would be that BTCs would be scarcer for whales to dump and liquidity is decreasing. Furthermore, BTC flowing out of exchanges is a favorable development as BTC owners would be less willing to sell, leading to price rises as the trend holds.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.97T, -2.5% from yesterday
  • $BTC is -2.17% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 157.53M, -0.00507% average
  • $ETH is -2.73% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 43.70M, -0.00321% average 
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 44.33%; USDC 26.59%; UST 9.58%; BUSD 9.26%; DAI 4.64%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $211.55B (-1.19% over last 24 hours)
  • $SOL -3.4% in the last 24 hours, +1.4% in the past week
  • $SHIB -1.8% in the last 24 hours, -5.6% in the past week
  • $SAND -3.3% in the last 24 hours, -0.5% in the past week
  • $ENJ -4.6% in the last 24 hours, -5.3% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch, Tiffany Wee & Ethan Fu.

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