December 17, 2021

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $49,459
$BTC 24 Hour Low $47,413
$BTC +1.0% past 24 hours; -4.9% past 7 days

$ETH: Bulls vs bears for the $4K champion

Good morning and happy Friday. The crypto markets seem to be losing some steam now as $BTC is in retreat for five weeks already, currently trading at 30% below its November ATH. $BTC continued to hold above the $46K support level (near the 200D moving average). Falling through that will easily bring $BTC to the next support at $42,300, the dip from December 4 plunge. The momentum of $BTC is starting to turn positive on the daily chart for the first time since October, with the 200D MA line (purple line) finally above the 111D MA (blue line). 

Crossing a strong resistance zone at $50-$53K could restore hopes of continuing $BTC’s uptrend, and a brief bounce towards $54K. This upside target is the 111D MA and convergeCrossing a strong resistance zone at $50-$53K could restore hopes of continuing $BTC’s uptrend, and a brief bounce towards $54K. This upside target is the 111D MA and the convergent point of downward and upward trendlines. The RSI has been mostly oversold since late-September. Hopefully this could attract long-term holders to buy the dip, despite the RSI suggesting that market participants are still indecisive. $BTC’s funding rates are stablized at -3% to +3% APY, with the aggregated Open Interest now at $17B across major exchanges compared to $25B during the November rally.

The $4,000 level continued to be a fight between the bears and bulls as $ETH failed to find support above this important level. Clearing the $4,000 resistance can bring us to the next upside hurdle of $4,235 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement level). Upside price movement appears to be limited around the $4,800 ATH, even if $ETH managed to pick up short-term upside momentum again. If the bulls lose the $4,000 battle, the next key support is at $3,700 to stablize the short-term pullback. The RSI is still hovering around the neutral 40 level, brace ourselves in case of any big moves either way if volatility kicks in. The funding rates are relatively stable at -1.7% to 2.5% APY, while the aggregated Open Interest is now below $10B across major exchanges, dropping from $13B in the November rally.

Should $BTC fail to reach or stay above $100K by the end of this year, Plan B’s famed stock to flow model (S2F) may face mounting difficulty to stay validated as a sound prediction model. S2F has been touted as one of the key reasons why $BTC continues to enjoy strong support in prices and is also a contributing variable in the numerous price pumps over the past few years.  Plan B’s could only protect the model’s reputation unless we see a massive price rally during the first half of 2022, allowing for an average $100K price for this cycle.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.


Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.33T, -1.7% from yesterday
  • $BTC is -2.7% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $29.37M, +0.00925% average
  • $ETH is -1.38% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $24.99M, +0.00982% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 48.2%; USDC 26.0%; BUSD 8.6%; DAI 5.5%


Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $98.39B
  • $SOL -0.1% in the last 24 hours, -8.8% in the past week 
  • $SHIB -2.9% in the last 24 hours, -11.1% in the past week
  • $SAND -3.6% in the last 24 hours, -6.0% in the past week
  • $ENJ -4.0% in the last 24 hours, -17.8% in the past week


More news that caught our eye:


OSL Trader View is contributed by Charmaine Tam, Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.


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