December 21, 2021

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $47,549
$BTC 24 Hour Low $45,568
$BTC +0.9% past 24 hours; -5.9% past 7 days

The waiting game continues 

Good Morning. $BTC prices continue the trend of testing the lows we saw two days ago. Lacking any stimulus and market participants are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a more definitive move in either direction. 

A word on the OBV in addition to what we mentioned yesterday. Bitcoin is trending lower, but On Balance Volume is moving sideways. This suggests volume on green days is likely larger than trading volume on red days, leading us to conclude that open interest is growing, and that the dip is being actively bought. We are keeping an eye out for potential fake-outs to the downside (a similar example occurred on the 22nd Jan). Our view remains bullish, with our ultimate backstop set at $40k. 

We mentioned yesterday $ETH is likely to test $3,700, and indeed we saw this play out in the following 24 hours. The 0.5 FR between the Sept-low and Nov-high ultimately acting as support as
price again looks to move higher, but for now only managing to continue the sideways trading action. 

The dips to $3,760 we believe may continue to provide good opportunities to top up, but we do need to see a stronger move higher above $4,050 to start signalling a potential trend reversal. $3,500 is our real support level should the price break down further, but above then we are comfortable, and it’s looking like $ETH is posting higher-lows in the 4 hour. Let’s see how this plays out in the coming days.

Data from Glassnode shows Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) falling to its biggest discount to nearly 22%, implying that new investors can buy GBTC shares at a heavily discounted price than the actual market value of $BTC. As GBTC is a closed-end fund, it cannot easily buy/sell shares to accommodate in or outflows and this also means existing holders face losses due to the 6 months lock-up period for their initial investment. Launched in 2013, GBTC has been traded at a significant premium above the market price of $BTC but strong competition at the start of the year from several BTC ETFs in Canada has caused a major dis-interest in its shares and hence contributing to a downward spiral in prices.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.32T, -0.3% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.06% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $53.57M, +0.00657% average
  • $ETH is +0.61% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $48.04M, +0.01031% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 47.67%; USDC 25.96%; BUSD 8.87%; DAI 5.52%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $97.69B
  • $SOL -3.2% in the last 24 hours, +12.4% in the past week 
  • $SHIB +3.1% in the last 24 hours, -14.0% in the past week
  • $SAND -1.0% in the last 24 hours, +4.6% in the past week
  • $ENJ -0.5% in the last 24 hours, -0.5% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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