February 15, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $42,881  / Low $41,809   |   $BTC +0.9% Past 24 hours; -2.9% Past 7 days

Three possible scenarios: Where are we in BTC’s cycle?

Good morning. Market uncertainty continues to weigh on crypto and equities as Russia-Ukraine tensions build and the Fed’s President calls for quicker rate hikes. Nevertheless, both $BTC and $ETH continued to chop sideways over the past 24 hours. In today’s technical analysis, let’s take a more macro approach to understand where we are in $BTC’s cycle. There are three scenarios that investors should keep an eye on: 

  • Scenario 1: $69,000 was indeed the market top, unfortunately, and we have already started to see the fifth wave with a new impulsive move higher, starting from January 5, as well as the final leg higher of the bull run. 
  • Scenario 2: We are still in a corrective phase of the market, and it may take a few months to form a triangle-like structure. We saw an extended fourth wave before entering the fifth wave. Scenario 2 is more likely to occur, though, given the uncertainty in global markets. However, this scenario will be invalidated if we move into the high 50s. 
  • Scenario 3: If $BTC fails to hold $30,000, both Scenario 1 and 2 will be invalidated altogether. Worse still, should $BTC plunge towards the support at the 200D MV, we may start entering into the bear market.

Like $BTC, $ETH traded sideways in the past 24 hours, and moved up marginally by 1%. The current lifeline support of the No 2 digital asset seems to be the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of its logarithmic growth corridor. Ultimately, $ETH’s price direction will still be highly dependent on a confirmative move from $BTC.

Besides, the BTC dominance has moved past 43% as market uncertainty leads to a rotation of liquidity from altcoins into BTC. We expect BTC dominance to face some resistance at 46% by the end of February, so this rotation still has plenty of room to run until then. 

On an earnings call on Monday, the Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) announced plans to launch a digital asset trading desk for retail clients by the end of the year. Southeast Asia’s largest bank by assets was one of the first few banks to offer such service to institutional investors in 2021. DBS CEO Piyush Gupta alluded that initial work has been done to expand its present investor pool and added that the current working model is that a high-net-worth individual can call their bankers to place a trade, whereas a more self-served platform would be more suitable to retail clients.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.99T, +0.8% from yesterday
  • $BTC is -0.18% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $27.55M, +0.00735% average
  • $ETH is -0.55% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $25.87M, +0.00933% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.63%; USDC 29.16%; BUSD 9.74%; TerraUSD 6.42%; DAI 5.45%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $202.75B (+0.42% over last 24h)
  • $SOL +4.3% in the last 24 hours, -17.4% in the past week 
  • $SHIB -1.8% in the last 24 hours, -9.0% in the past week
  • $SAND -0.6% in the last 24 hours, -14.0% in the past week
  • $ENJ +1.4% in the last 24 hours, -16.9% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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