February 21, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $40,140  / Low $38,000   |   $BTC -4.2% Past 24 hours; -6.5% Past 7 days

Short-term bullish structure intact but close to breaking 

Good morning. Though $BTC managed to hold above the $40,000 support level early last week, it finally slid lower to the $38,000 level. The aggressive pullback over the weekend forced $BTC to retest the downward-trending resistance-turned-support line from November as well as the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level for the current impulsive move at $38,280. 

We likely see $BTC sink towards $36,950, or even $36,275 soon. This latter is critical as it needs to be held to protect the validity of the bullish market structure in place since January 24. Otherwise, not only will we see further price rollover, the likelihood of a retest of the low 30s where we see the bottom of the logarithmic corridor will become ever higher. However, if $38,460 does hold, we may start seeing the formation of a market bottom structure. Higher lows with clear resistance at $44,500 lead to a price compression in a W-structure that may act as the springboard for prices to continue its next leg higher.

$ETH has also fallen consistently lower, with basically no upside moves over the last five days. It’s currently finding support from the February 3 low at $2,580. If we fail to hold at this significant support, this may suggest a breakdown of the more bullish price action we had been following for almost a month. With prices currently finding support at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level retest, it’s still a normal pullback in our opinion. However, a failure to hold this level would lead to quick capitulation down to $2,200, the January 24 lows of last year. 

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index retraced to the “Extreme Fear” level today again, and the current price levels have become ever more attractive to long-term investors. However, it’s premature to conclude the market bottoms now, owing to the uncertainties on the Russia-Ukraine situation and March rate hikes. 

As part of new measures introduced by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to limit Fed officials from owning certain assets, cryptocurrencies were added to the list after stocks and bonds. This was off the back of reports, claiming top officials from the Fed traded basis non-public information pre-/during COVID, and some policymakers subsequently resigned after the reports were released. The first draft of the rules did not include cryptocurrency, but this has been added. The law will come into effect May 1, and aims to bolster confidence in the Committee’s impartiality and integrity.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.95T, -5.1% from yesterday
  • $BTC is -0.14% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $90.70M, +0.00214% average
  • $ETH is -0.22% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $63.87M, +0.00461% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.54%; USDC 28.98%; BUSD 9.95%; TerraUSD 6.66%; DAI 5.37%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $194.22B (-2.27% over last 24h)
  • $SOL -0.5% in the last 24 hours, -10.5% in the past week 
  • $SHIB -7.6% in the last 24 hours, -3.0% in the past week
  • $SAND -8.7% in the last 24 hours, -13.4% in the past week
  • $ENJ -7.9% in the last 24 hours, -10.9% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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