February 25, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $39,855  / Low $34,334   |   $BTC +4.5% Past 24 hours; -5.1% Past 7 days

Crypto rallies overnight as fundamental news forgotten

Good morning and happy Friday. $BTC saw sharp price swings in the past 24 hours but eventually stabilized above the $38,000 levels amid recovery of the stock markets. $300 million worth of short positions got liquidated within the same time frame, the biggest liquidation since early December 2021. If $BTC and $ETH stay at current levels, most put options expiring today will be out of money. 

After retracing throughout the day, $BTC eventually found support at $34,620, the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement extension from the impulsive move lower started on February 23. Since then, $BTC aggressively rallied to the short-term resistance at $39,700, and is currently settling at $38,350. We can see how important is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level acting as the resistance when we look at the Fibonacci retracement levels between the January 14-high and January 24-low. In our opinion, $36,240 should be able to hold as support in the short term. Should this fail, the larger downtrend that has been in play for the last three months is likely to continue. Once we breach the first resistance level at $39,500, we will set our eyes on the next target at $43,000.

$ETH is licking its wounds after plunging to $2,320 overnight. We saw strong resistance at $2,770, with support at yesterday’s daily low at $2,320. We noted how the digital asset markets were diminishing, and there is no easier way to see this by looking at equity futures. While Nasdaq and S&P futures are trading at 9-month lows, crypto, in general, is still above the lows we saw a month ago. Our desk is keeping a neutral view over the weekend, and the markets should turn more bullish once we clear the resistance at $2,770.  

Layer-1 coins led the price recovery overnight, with fears of ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions seemingly abating. Western allies plus Japan joined hands and announced stronger sanctions against Russian banks and their political leaders. The latest geopolitical developments have been interpreted by the financial markets at this point as less concerning, with equity indexes up 0.3-3% across the board and Nasdaq showing the biggest positive change at 3.3%. This buoyed the digital asset market as its fortunes have been recently tied to the rise and fall of technology stock prices.

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.79T, +0.6% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.28% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $258.82M, +0.00876% average
  • $ETH is +0.90% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $208.48M, +0.00190% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.49%; USDC 29.03%; BUSD 10.14%; TerraUSD 6.82%; DAI 5.09%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $184.39 (-5.76% over last 24h)
  • $SOL +4.1% in the last 24 hours, -3.5% in the past week 
  • $SHIB +1.3% in the last 24 hours, -18.0% in the past week
  • $SAND -7.3% in the last 24 hours, -31.4% in the past week
  • $ENJ -1.5% in the last 24 hours, -20.8% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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