February 28, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $39,871  / Low $36,997   |   $BTC -3.8% Past 24 hours; -1.8% Past 7 days

Expect high volatility as more Russia SWIFT ban details surface

Good morning. The digital assets tumbled after President Putin put Russian nuclear forces on high alert. Though the EU announced plans to cut key Russian banks off from SWIFT, it is speculated that Russia is looking to turn to digital assets as a workaround. To get through the geopolitical turmoil with Russia, the Ukrainian government posted crowdsourcing appeals on social media and has received more than $17 million in crypto donations worldwide to date.

Despite $BTC attempting to break through critical resistance areas at $39,000-$40,000 repeatedly, there was insufficient buying power to lift the prices further. The support and resistance levels defined by the Fibonacci retracement levels from the impulse move higher since February 24-low. 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level now acts as immediate support. The desk view remains neutral as we are now in no man’s land. If we break $36,500, the markets will turn more bearish in the short term, but a breach above $40,400 will turn the market more bullish. Funding rates are leaning slightly to the negative side. Rather than using leverage to aggressively short, it would seem investors are turning to other hedges against long spot positions.

$ETH is in similar territory to $BTC while finding support at key 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the current impulsive move. As expected, there were lower volumes on the weekend, with both the daily and weekly RSI standing at a neutral 40. We expect $ETH to continue chopping sideways until we see a more decisive move. If we can break $2,883, the market will turn more bullish, but the bears will take control if we lose the $2,500 support. Until then, let us keep a close eye on the TradFi markets as well. Monthly close will take place in just under 24 hours. If $ETH remains to trade at this level, it would be the third consecutive month closing in the red, which last happened in 2018. That said, the macro picture still looks more bullish in the mid-to-long term and the expected volatility in the next few weeks could give rise to more buying opportunities. 

Recent indications showed crypto fund managers bought native tokens of digital asset exchanges in the dip to bolster their market position. Native tokens have revenues and real cash flows, which can be considered as a defensive asset. Exchanges also benefit greatly from volatility which in turn drives more value to its token, enhancing returns. With rising geopolitical tensions and interest rates hikes looming, investors have dialed down on seeking risky assets, crypto fund managers are now opting for a common TradFi strategy i.e., hunting for lower volatility and higher-quality assets.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.79T, -3.6% from yesterday
  • $BTC is -0.07% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $77.82M, -0.01085% average
  • $ETH is -0.37% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $82.77M, -0.00168% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.42%; USDC 29.13%; BUSD 9.85%; TerraUSD 7.02%; DAI 5.03%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $196.3 (-4.56% over last 24h)
  • $SOL -5.6% in the last 24 hours, -5.5% in the past week 
  • $SHIB -4.0% in the last 24 hours, -7.9% in the past week
  • $SAND -5.3% in the last 24 hours, -9.3% in the past week
  • $ENJ -4.5% in the last 24 hours, -10.4% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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