Huge options expiry coming up with max pain price at $40K

​​$BTC 24 Hour High  $40,388  / Low $38,878  |   $BTC +0.7% Past 24 hours; -1.9% Past 7 day

Good morning and happy Friday. The crypto markets saw a decent bounce overnight, following the price recovery of the equities markets. However, the market sentiments have remained in the “extreme fear” zone over the past two days. The support for crypto seems fragile, and the overall trading activity is likely to remain muted. The maximum pain point of $BTC’s month-end options expiry is $40,000 today so mild volatility is expected today.

$BTC is now trading above $38,700, a key support level that we need to watch out for. The maximum pain price for today’s options expiry at $40,000 is a main psychological level. We expect range-bound movements going into the weekend between $39,100 and $42,360, 

(0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels respectively) from the February 24’s low to March 28’s high impulsive move. Further, the VPVR also shows a high level of activity at both levels. While the correlation to equities remains high at around the 0.9 coefficient, investors should closely monitor the movements in the equities market, which dictate cryptos’ direction.

$ETH is currently trading at $2,940, with immediate support at $2,750. Like $BTC, the No. 2 digital asset is holding well above the 20M EMA, which is expected to come in under $2,600. Interestingly, the maximum pain price for today’s expiry at $3,000 is also a key psychological level. The VPVR also shows that substantial trading activity has historically taken place at this level. Thus we could expect range-bound trading over the weekend as well. A rotation from $BTC to altcoins has not happened yet, indicating that the overall sentiment is still risk-averse despite the overnight bounce in risk assets. The ETH/BTC chart looks considerably compressed, with the RSI at a neutral level. 

A new U.S. bill seeking to lay down a reporting regime for crypto exchanges is now officially presented to Congress. The Digital Commodity Exchange Act (DCEA) is a bi-partisan effort and will build upon existing frameworks by the CFTC and SEC. DCEA seeks to close any regulatory gaps and establish confidence within this burgeoning industry.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.92T, +1.0% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.28% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 71.79M, +0.00778% average
  • $ETH is +0.13% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 41.31M, +0.00870% average 
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 44.38%; USDC 26.36%; UST 9.85%; BUSD 9.28%; DAI 4.58%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $207.76B (+1.42% over last 24 hours)
  • $SOL -1.0% in the last 24 hours, -3.6% in the past week
  • $SHIB -1.9% in the last 24 hours, -5.6% in the past week
  • $SAND -0.7% in the last 24 hours, -9.0% in the past week
  • $ENJ -1.0% in the last 24 hours, -10.2% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch & Ethan Fu.

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