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January 13, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $44,288
​​$BTC 24 Low $42,543   
$BTC +2.2% Past 24 hours; +0.1% Past 7 days

Risk-on moves as CPI numbers meet expectations

Good morning. The digital asset market returns as $BTC recovered from losses and swelled to $44,000 over the last 24 hours. Many altcoins also saw double-digit green returns since the newly released U.S. CPI numbers rose 7% over the last 12 months, which were in line with market expectations. Although we are not out of the woods just yet, $BTC is starting to shoot higher. It’s just a matter of time for $BTC to grind higher to test the first real crucial resistance area at $45,700.

$BTC is currently holding at $43,700, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement between the June-Low and September-High. Open interest still seems to be relatively high on the perpetual swap contract, an instrument used by market participants to take leverage. Given funding rates are stretched to the downside, it leads to several liquidation levels above the current price level. Should physical spot purchases lift $BTC higher, we should start seeing liquidations among shorts begin to increase, giving a further lift to prices. Funding rates are stretched, but it seems that it will not be reset to the market standard at 0.01% until shorts are closed, either voluntarily or through forced liquidations.

$ETH has also reclaimed $3,360, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level between May-high and July-Low. While the 50W MA acted as support, the 200D MA above is also coming in as support. That said, $ETH will likely re-test $3,200. Should this hold, it would provide an additional signal that the bull market is intact and sustainable and possibly moving towards $3,600 for the real test. A successful test and hold could mark a good point to add to longs. 

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.


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