January 4, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $47,587
$BTC 24 Hour Low $45,692
$BTC -1.8% past 24 hours; -8.6% past 7 days

Is $ETH primed for the next move higher?

Good morning. While the world celebrated BTC’s birthday yesterday, the markets continue to be choppy since that big plunge at the beginning of December. Over the last 24 hours, neither $BTC and $ETH have made any big moves in either direction, holding critical support at $45.6K and $3.68K respectively. Perhaps it’s a good opportunity to recollect and learn more about where we are in the macro cycle, and where we may head to next. We are currently in the lower half of $BTC’s logarithmic growth curves that have accurately laid out the price path since BTC’s genesis block was mined 13 years ago.

Aside from the black swan event of the Coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, $BTC generally found ultimate support at the bottom of this trading channel. In addition, the bear market tends to reverse when $BTC, the corridor’s bottom and 200W MA (yellow line) meet. Based on the historical data, the longer we trade sideways, the higher the top of the bull market tends to be. $BTC remains above the 200W MA currently. The higher such a trendline goes, the higher the ultimate support for the bear market could be, should the trend reverse.

If we take a closer examination of $ETH’s logarithmic growth corridor on the chart, the first thing we notice is that we are in the upper section of this corridor. It begs the question of how much more of a rally we expect from $ETH, and how significant the pullback during the bear market could be. $ETH seems to be at a crucial moment now, with its RSI sitting on support in the last bear market (since December 2018). Given the surging numbers of institutions entering the space and the pace of ecosystem development, we expect $ETH’s bull run to continue for a few months. $ETH is consolidating at a section of the logarithmic growth curves where it consolidated in Q3 2017 similarly, before exploding to new ATHs.  

Grayscale, known for its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) product, has announced a reshuffle of its DeFi constituents as part of its quarterly rebalancing. It has removed Bancor and UMA and added AMP, which is used within the Flexa network as a form of collateral. The bulk of the fund is made up of Uniswap at 42.33% and Aave at 13.06%. AMP will take up 7.39%. Grayscale launched the fund in July 2021 and provides institutional investors access to the burgeoning DeFi market without custodying the tokens on their own.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video. 

Digital assets market:

• Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.34T, -1.8% from yesterday
• $BTC is -0.07% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $40.64M, +0.00405% average
• $ETH is -0.04% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $22.04M, +0.00640% average
• Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 47.12%; USDC 25.66%; BUSD 8.79%; TerraUSD 6.17%; DAI 5.45%

Alts and DeFi watch:

• DeFi TVL: $100.15B
• $SOL -3.1% in the last 24 hours, -13.2% in the past week 
• $SHIB -2.6% in the last 24 hours, -15.1% in the past week
• $SAND -4.8% in the last 24 hours, -12.20% in the past week
• $ENJ -2.9% in the last 24 hours, -9.50% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

• Commodity Futures Trading Commission shuts down Polymarket  
• ETH founder Vitalik Buterin calls BCH ‘mostly a failure’
• Here’s why crypto market cap will more than double this year, according to Ava Labs Chief John Wu
• Can ENJ dissociating from BTC put the altcoins on a track to ATH
• MARATHON mined 3,197 BTC in 2021, an 846% increase YOY
• Happy Birthday, BTC! Industry players share a few words

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.