July 23, 2021

$BTC 24 Hour High $32,549
$BTC 24 Hour Low $31,716
$BTC +1.5% past 24 hours; +2.2% past 7 days 

Good morning. Many clients asked us what other quantitative tools we use to determine where prices could be moving next. While not much has changed in the charts, we’ll use this opportunity to highlight some of them today.

To begin with, the Long/Short ratio over the last 24 hours has been favouring the bulls. Either shorts have been closing their positions, or longs have been opened. This ties in nicely with the funding rates, the tool used to ensure perpetual swaps stay in line with the spot price. When the perpetual swap price is below spot, a negative funding rate (i.e. shorts pay longs) is imposed to incentivize more people to open perpetual swap long positions in an effort to lift the price up and bring it in line with the spot. 

The BTC Fear and Greed Index is another great tool to judge market sentiment. It comprises five data points, namely Volatility, Market Momentum / Volume, Social Media, BTC Dominance and Trends. Historically, it is a good time to buy when the index shows ‘extreme fear’.

Finally, the stock-to-flow-model, used as a tool to determine the relative abundance of a scarce commodity such as gold or silver, has historically provided a remarkably accurate forecast of BTC’s price appreciation. The value shows how many years, given current supply increases, it would take to replenish all existing stock should it disappear. As of 21 July, this model calculated BTC’s value to be at $89,158.10. Due to BTC’s halving cycle, this value steadily increases over time as it takes even more years of mining to replenish existing BTC.

Speaking of market demand and supply, it’s also interesting to note that Goldman Sachs reported that 15% of their family office clients are already digital assets owners, and a further 45% surveyed (survey conducted with more than 150 family offices) stating they are keen to add crypto as an asset class to act as a hedge against protracted low interest rate environment, rising inflation and other macroeconomic concerns.  

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.

Digital assets market:

Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.375T, +1.3% from yesterday
$BTC is up 1.3% at time of writing, support / resistance – 31,508 / 32,875
$BTC liquidations and funding: $47.15M, -0.005% average
$ETH is up 2.4% at time of writing, support / resistance – 1,971 / 2,053
$ETH liquidations and funding: $47.46M, 0.015% average

Alts and DeFi watch: 

DeFi TVL: $57.66B
$FTT up 5.01% in the last 24 hours, up ~12.74% in the past week
$CAKE up 3.21% in the last 24 hours, down ~3.64% in the past week
$BSV up 3.77% in the last 24 hours, down ~3.01% in the past week
$COMP up 13.04% in the last 24 hours, up ~5.97% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Emilia Lee, Ethan Fu & Stefan von Haenisch. 

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