March 1, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $44,223  / Low $37,458   |   $BTC +15.7% Past 24 hours; +16.8% Past 7 days

Huge overnight rally wakes up the bulls

Good morning. Crypto saw an aggressive rally overnight as the Russian Ruble crumbled by 32%, even though the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate from 9.5% to 20%. As sanctions intensify, the crypto bounce could be due to the increasing demand for $BTC and $ETH among Russians and Ukrainians as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical turmoil.

$BTC led the digital asset markets higher and is charging towards the mid-40s, with a 15% boost over the past 24 hours. We are targeting the 1.618 Fib extension (at $44,500) from the impulsive move that started on February 24. However, we expect to see some initial resistance or even a small pullback to $41,000-$42,000 before reaching our upside target. Given we broke the resistance level at $40,400, we are now bullish on the market outlook in the short term. However, fast rallies like this may be sometimes followed by a pullback. So, we need to keep a close eye on $41,700 as support – whether the trading volumes in the spot market are growing in tandem to sustain the current rally. Due to a lack of liquidations among shorts, this has not turned into a short squeeze yet.

$ETH stayed in lockstep with $BTC but its impulsive move from February 24 has only just cleared the swing high from February 26 at $2,883. We will likely encounter resistance at these levels as we hit the downward-trending resistance line in place since December. It’s important for $2,883 to hold as the day progresses. In February, the 50D MA arrived at this resistance level twice already before ultimately encountering resistance from the downward-trending line. If we do breach the resistance, we expect to see a swift move to $3,315. Liquidations are also very low among shorts.

With this newfound confidence in the market, the Bank of America released a rather aptly-timed note, saying it sees no crypto winter ahead, given surging new user adoption and development activity. The analytic piece also revealed that the flows between exchange-based and personal wallets show a lack of directional conviction and a price outbreak unlikely as headwinds prevail. One would not have anticipated such a strong move off the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict but as it broke the recent trading range, we wait to see if this rally gets sold down just as quickly or presents a next new base for prices to launch off from.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.92T, +14.1% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +14.6% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 30.6M, +0.00396% average
  • $ETH is +11.7% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 7.8M, +0.00536% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 44.4%; USDC 29.9%; BUSD 10.2%; UST 7.2%; DAI 5.2%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $206.2B (+0.2% over last 24h)
  • $SOL +16.8% in the last 24 hours, +20.3% in the past week
  • $SHIB +10.3% in the last 24 hours, +7.0% in the past week
  • $SAND +10.5% in the last 24 hours, +10.5% in the past week
  • $ENJ +14.3% in the last 24 hours, +13.2% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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