$BTC 24 Hour High $44,223 / Low $37,458 | $BTC +15.7% Past 24 hours; +16.8% Past 7 days
Huge overnight rally wakes up the bulls
Good morning. Crypto saw an aggressive rally overnight as the Russian Ruble crumbled by 32%, even though the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate from 9.5% to 20%. As sanctions intensify, the crypto bounce could be due to the increasing demand for $BTC and $ETH among Russians and Ukrainians as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical turmoil.
$BTC led the digital asset markets higher and is charging towards the mid-40s, with a 15% boost over the past 24 hours. We are targeting the 1.618 Fib extension (at $44,500) from the impulsive move that started on February 24. However, we expect to see some initial resistance or even a small pullback to $41,000-$42,000 before reaching our upside target. Given we broke the resistance level at $40,400, we are now bullish on the market outlook in the short term. However, fast rallies like this may be sometimes followed by a pullback. So, we need to keep a close eye on $41,700 as support – whether the trading volumes in the spot market are growing in tandem to sustain the current rally. Due to a lack of liquidations among shorts, this has not turned into a short squeeze yet.
$ETH stayed in lockstep with $BTC but its impulsive move from February 24 has only just cleared the swing high from February 26 at $2,883. We will likely encounter resistance at these levels as we hit the downward-trending resistance line in place since December. It’s important for $2,883 to hold as the day progresses. In February, the 50D MA arrived at this resistance level twice already before ultimately encountering resistance from the downward-trending line. If we do breach the resistance, we expect to see a swift move to $3,315. Liquidations are also very low among shorts.
With this newfound confidence in the market, the Bank of America released a rather aptly-timed note, saying it sees no crypto winter ahead, given surging new user adoption and development activity. The analytic piece also revealed that the flows between exchange-based and personal wallets show a lack of directional conviction and a price outbreak unlikely as headwinds prevail. One would not have anticipated such a strong move off the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict but as it broke the recent trading range, we wait to see if this rally gets sold down just as quickly or presents a next new base for prices to launch off from.
Learn more from today’s Trader View video.
Digital assets market:
- Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.92T, +14.1% from yesterday
- $BTC is +14.6% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 30.6M, +0.00396% average
- $ETH is +11.7% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 7.8M, +0.00536% average
- Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 44.4%; USDC 29.9%; BUSD 10.2%; UST 7.2%; DAI 5.2%
Alts and DeFi watch:
- DeFi TVL: $206.2B (+0.2% over last 24h)
- $SOL +16.8% in the last 24 hours, +20.3% in the past week
- $SHIB +10.3% in the last 24 hours, +7.0% in the past week
- $SAND +10.5% in the last 24 hours, +10.5% in the past week
- $ENJ +14.3% in the last 24 hours, +13.2% in the past week
More news that caught our eye:
- Russian ruble crashes against $BTC, following SWIFT cutoff
- US treasury dept lists digital currencies as part of effort to sanction Russia’s government
- Crypto donations to Ukraine jump to $20M
- Crypto exchanges refuse to freeze Russian crypto accounts – Ukrainian authorities push geoban
- Money transfer fintech Wise pulls the plug on its services in Russia
- FC Barcelona and AS Roma fan tokens rally after Socios partners with UEFA
- Institutions pour $36M into BTC, ETH and one additional altcoin as market volatility skyrockets
- Global supply chain logistics company Flexport has BTC on their balance sheet
OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.
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