Market overbought, expect short-term pullback

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $48,224 / Low $46,672   |   $BTC +1.2% Past 24 hours; +15.3% Past 7 days

Good morning. The risk-on sentiment returns to the markets in full force while we saw a V-shaped recovery in equity futures. The 10-year government yields are breaking out of the 30-year downward-trending channel for the second time since 2018, and it is likely to trend high in the next few weeks. Given the current U.S. monetary and fiscal policy, DXY is consolidating at 99.076 and struggling to break through 100. On the bright side, the correlation between $BTC and Nasdaq rose to approximately 0.8, and the correlation is even higher for $ETH.  

The 200D MA is now acting as resistance for $BTC’s current price action, and the upward-trending resistance line that we identified is also playing its part. At present, the No. 1 digital asset is consolidating below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level between the November-High and January-Low at $47,680. The current price level has seen the second-highest amount of trading activity since August 2021 based on the VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range), and trading activity trends to fall drastically above this level. A quick break above $48,500 might encourage the bulls to quickly push $BTC higher to $52,000. That said, we expect the bulls to face a confluence of resistance factors at this level. It’s worth noting that the open interests of BTC options expiring at the end of April are still heavily positioned at around $50,000 and $60,000.

After attempting to break through the resistance at $3,417, $ETH is climbing towards its first crucial resistance target at $3,495. As RSI is now entering the overbought territory, a short-term retreat is due to take place. According to the VPVR, $3,144 is the most actively-traded price level since July 2021, so keep an eye on a retest of this previous upside hurdle as the new support. It is highly likely for $ETH to revisit this in the short term or even retest below $3,000. If $ETH sees an aggressive dump and loses the $3,100 support, it may retrace and retest $2,650 or even $2,500.

Over the last 30 days, crypto’s market capitalization saw a 23.29% jump to $2.13 trillion as the global economy swindled. The recent massive resurgence of major cryptocurrencies such as BTC is the partial reason for the increase in the valuation of the digital assets market as a whole. Various altcoins are joining the crypto market rally, with Filecoin (FIL), Internet Computer (ICP), VeChain (VET) and EOS (EOS) posting some of the largest gains.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.22T, +1.9% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.5% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 118.02M, +0.00882% average
  • $ETH is +0.85% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 133.45M, +0.00938% average 
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.61%; USDC 27.89%; BUSD 9.40%; UST 8.68%; DAI 4.94%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $223.59B (+0.55% over last 24h)
  • $SOL +2.4% in the last 24 hours, +21.8% in the past week
  • $SHIB +5.8% in the last 24 hours, +17.9% in the past week
  • $SAND -0.5% in the last 24 hours, +14.1% in the past week
  • $ENJ -1.3% in the last 24 hours, +22.0% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch, Andrea Au & Ethan Fu.

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