November 1, 2021

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $62,492
$BTC 24 Hour Low $60,307
$BTC -1.6% past 24 hours; +0.7% past 7 days

$BTC, $ETH saw the highest monthly close

Good morning. October was exceptionally bullish as we saw a 40% price appreciation in $BTC, with the highest ever monthly close to date. $BTC didn’t disappoint us in this regard as this lays a strong foundation to continue the bullish price action towards the end of 2021. Historically, it’s actually in November and December that have led to spectacular gains at this stage of the cycle. 

Based on our historical data, we may hit the market’s ceiling when the biweekly RSI rises to the mid-80s or even higher. The good news is the current RSI is still in the 70s (reasonably neutral), indicating there is still room for $BTC to move higher. Should the market be topped out, we may see a retrace of prices over a seven-to-eight-month period to test the 200W MA. $BTC went down towards 58K last week though it’s not obvious how important this 57K area was. This level is the halfway point of the logarithmic growth curves that has acted as the springboard for a move towards the top of the trading corridor (see the chart).

$ETH also saw its highest ever monthly close to date, with a 25% boost over the second-highest close, which was September. After building enough strength, $ETH may act like a coiled spring ready to explode even higher. Similar to what we witnessed in May, if $ETH breaks the resistance at the top of the 2021 trading corridor, it may explode higher to $5,500-$,6000. $4,000 is our first critical support area, with the bottom of the trading corridor serving as a backstop should $4,000 fail to hold. 

Unlike how $BTC hit its ATH of $64K in April 2021, we haven’t seen a significant spike in search queries related to keywords such as “Bitcoin” or “buy Bitcoin” on Google Trends recently. Thus, we infer that the latest $BTC run-up most likely didn’t not have substantial retail participation.  Conversely, DOGE-killer $SHIB was the most popular crypto-related search query last week — it’s either coinciding and/or exacerbating the rally, which saw a 100,000,000% boost in prices since the start of this year.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.75T, +0.2% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.2% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $41.75M, +0.0202% average
  • $ETH is +0.4% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $33.78M, +0.0210% average
  • Stablecoins Market Cap: USDT 53.17%; USDC 24.75%; BUSD 10.18%; DAI 4.84%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $104.46B
  • $ADA +0.4% in the last 24 hours, -7.2% in the past week 
  • $DOGE +1.5% in the last 24 hours, -0.6% in the past week
  • $TRX -0.4% in the last 24 hours, +2.0% in the past week
  • $MANA -16.5% in the last 24 hours, +275.4% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Emilia Lee, Ethan Fu & Stefan von Haenisch.

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