Pullback begins as short-term weakness reigns supreme

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $47,201 / Low $45,342   |   $BTC +2.3% Past 24 hours; -4.0% Past 7 days

Good morning. The digital assets markets took a dip after Fed Reserve Governor Lael Brainard announced reducing its balance sheet’s size at a rapid pace as early as May. As the crypto’s momentum continues to wane, we expect $BTC and other major digital assets to suffer from a continued weakness towards the weekend. 

In the past 24 hours, $BTC moved past $47,000 but lost steam afterward, failing to hold above this level. The daily MACD has flashed a sell signal for the first time in a month. In addition, the daily RSI moved lower toward the weekly RSI and is now looking for support at an upward-trending line that has been in place since January 23. A pullback is overdue and could force $BTC to test $42,500 at least. The convergence of multiple technical indicators at this level implies a decent amount of support (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, 111D MA, VPVR and the upward-trending support).  

Compared to $BTC, $ETH pulled back even more aggressively as it failed to cross the upside resistance at $3,500. Though the pullback is likely to accelerate, $ETH should receive heavy support above $3,100. An initial support level is found at the $3,200-$3,250 area, where the VRPR shows the highest amount of traded volume since September, the 50W MA and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level between the November-high and January-low. Short-term Fibonacci retracement levels, mapped by the March 13-low and the April 40-high, also placed the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level in this area. The daily RSI is also looking to find support at this aforementioned level. The 111D MA came lower at around $3,100, so keep this price in mind as well. If we move any lower, $ETH might slide below $3,000 before moving up higher again. This potential dip should be short-lived in our opinion. 

BTC maximalist Michael Saylor quietly added an additional 4,167 BTC since February 15 through a MicroStrategy subsidiary, MacroStrategy. Buying this at roughly $190.5 million through an intercompany loan equates to an average price of $45,714 per coin. Microstrategy’s control of BTC’s total supply has gone up from 0.5% to 0.615% after MacroStrategy and MicroStrategy’s latest purchases. The latest holdings of 244,328 of both entities mean that MicroStrategy remains the biggest publicly-traded company to have the broadest exposure to BTC versus its market capitalization at approximately 111%.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.17T, -4.0% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +1.25% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 68.26M, -0.00261% average
  • $ETH is +2.23% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 60.94M, -0.02490% average 
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.85%; USDC 27.29%; BUSD 9.52%; UST 8.89%; DAI 4.82%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $232.73B (-0.18% over last 24h)
  • $SOL -4.5% in the last 24 hours, +11.7% in the past week
  • $SHIB -2.1% in the last 24 hours, -5.0% in the past week
  • $SAND -6.9% in the last 24 hours, -8.4% in the past week
  • $ENJ -8.0% in the last 24 hours, -6.7% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch & Ethan Fu.

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