$BTC likely to hold until today’s options expire, max pain print at $42K

$BTC 24 Hour High $44,119 / Low $41,832 | $BTC -3.2% Past 24 hours; +10.7% Past 7 days

$BTC likely to hold until today’s options expire, max pain print at $42K 

Good morning and happy Friday. The digital assets market tumbled following the news that Ukraine’s nuclear power plant was on fire after the Russian attacks. After attempting to push towards $45,500 to break the local top, $BTC retraced lower and tested the first key support area at $42,000. We noted a large number of options expiring today, with stickiness at around $42,000, which is also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the impulse higher since February 28. 

If $42,000 fails to hold, we expect $BTC to chart lower and test $41,000, at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50D MA. While the upward-trending support is forming, this level will likely be tested once the options have expired. As risk-on sentiment returns across global equity markets in the short term, the pullback in Tradfi is widening. The 10-year yields are currently facing resistance at the top of the downward-trending channel that’s been in place for 30 years. However, contrary to some market commentaries, there is no bullish divergence forming between prices and the RSI on the futures market as the period is too long. Stay cautious about the upcoming short-term pullback, but the real question is how aggressive it will be.

$ETH struggled to break through downward-trending resistance for the third time and is being drawn to the maximum pain point for today’s options expiry at $2,850. The 50D MA also failed to render any strong support. If the markets drift lower after options expiry, we expect $ETH to test the $2,740 support level. If this fails, the downtrend will likely continue. However, if prices do reverse in the short term, we should look for a potential head and shoulders pattern, with a technical target of $3,883. That said, it seems too much of a clutch at the moment. 

Storied asset management firm Charles Schwab plans to market its first in-house digital assets product to its sizable client base of 33 million. Dubbed as “Schwab Crypto Economy ETF”, it tracks stocks of listed companies such as exchanges, blockchain developers, miners, etc. engaged in the digital assets economy, according to a yet incomplete prospectus filing with the SEC. Schwab is the latest to join BlackRock, Fidelity and other asset managers in creating digital assets products due to the booming customer demand.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital Assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.95T, -3.3% from yesterday
  • $BTC is -0.71% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 19.3M, +0.00548% average
  • $ETH is -0.80% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 5.0M, +0.00336% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.27%; USDC 29.03%; BUSD 9.85%; UST 7.28%; DAI 5.0%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $205.24B (+0.0% over last 24h)
  • $SOL -6.9% in the last 24 hours, +6.3% in the past week
  • $SHIB -3.4% in the last 24 hours, +4.1% in the past week
  • $SAND -5.6% in the last 24 hours, +2.2% in the past week
  • $ENJ -6.0% in the last 24 hours, +8.2% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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