February 22, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $39,504  / Low $36,814   |   $BTC -3.6% Past 24 hours; -13.0% Past 7 days

Markets see wild swings as Russia recognizes Ukraine rebel zone

Good morning, digital asset markets sank again amid rising Russia-Ukraine tensions. $BTC saw significant weakness in the past 24 hours, with support putting up feeble fights. Currently, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level for the move up from $33,000 to $44,500 is held after a successful retest. Given the recent downtrend, it looks like it’s only a matter of time before it breaks. $36,000 is the next support area, followed by the January low at $33,000.

Not only did the downward-trending support line fail to hold, its correlation to traditional equity markets is also trending lower. Any continued weakness in $BTC will undoubtedly drag the digital asset market much further down. Though it will be an attractive buying opportunity if $BTC retraces towards the mid- or even low 30s, the saying ‘don’t try and catch a falling knife’ springs to mind, given the sudden plunge. Funding rates fell into the negative territory as shorts started to build positions in anticipation of another pullback.

Like $BTC, $ETH dropped lower but managed to find better support at the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement extension from the current impulsive move lower, which started on February 10. Funding rates remain positive, suggesting the push down is being caused by spot selling. We are likely to see a move down to $2,540 today to test the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. $ETH is currently more sensitive to traditional market weakness. Any pronounced drop below this level would spell further pain for the market next week, and the No. 2 digital asset is likely to slide to $2,390 before the next support area comes in.

Although the Chinese state media denounced NFT, the new phrase “Digital Collectibles” used by local NFT companies has seen huge interest within the Chinese market. China Central Television (CCTV) issued 34,000 collectibles of the 12 different Chinese zodiac-themed models via Tencent and Alibaba’s NFT marketplace, and prices have skyrocketed 10-fold even before the trade embargo has been lifted during pre-sale bidding. Any digital collectible sales by platforms must adhere to a 180-day transfer lock period and the thinking behind this is to try and eliminate excessive speculation. The price of each digital collectible starts at under US$5 and sellers are predicting a floor price of at least US$50 by the time the embargo to sell is lifted.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Digital assets market:

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.76T, -3.9% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.35% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $139.03M, +0.00335% average
  • $ETH is +0.33% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: $113.92M, +0.01233% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 43.61%; USDC 28.95%; BUSD 9.93%; TerraUSD 6.70%; DAI 5.33%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $195.76 (-1.30% over last 24h)
  • $SOL -9.4% in the last 24 hours, -13.4% in the past week 
  • $SHIB -5.2% in the last 24 hours, -18.1% in the past week
  • $SAND -8.5% in the last 24 hours, -27.0% in the past week
  • $ENJ -9.5% in the last 24 hours, -20.3% in the past week

More news that caught our eye:

OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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