March 2, 2022

​​$BTC 24 Hour High $44,997  / Low $42,822   |   $BTC +2.4% Past 24 hours; +15.8% Past 7 days

Altcoins lag as Bitcoin dominance hits 44.23% 

Good morning. $BTC continued to rally and gained over 15% since Monday. The market capitalization soared to $2 trillion, showing no sign of short-term retreat yet. The sentiments around U.S. rate hikes have changed over the past few days, now favoring a 25 bps hike in March instead of 50 bps, and only a total of five instead of seven hikes.

$BTC is now consolidating at $44,600, the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the current impulsive move higher. More buyers entered the market to push $BTC up in order to break the resistance that has acted as the price ceiling since January 6. Once we breach this level, $BTC will likely face more immediate resistance at $45,800. To continue the bullish market structure that has formed over the last few weeks, we need to overcome this upside hurdle and witness prices printing higher highs and higher lows. If we look at the VPVR (volume profile visible range) that shows the most active trading zones – the key resistance essentially lies not far beyond. $BTC is expected to encounter strong resistance at $47,000, the most heavily-traded area since August 2021. This is also in line with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level between the November-high and January-low. 

Altcoins, in general, are still lagging as the Bitcoin dominance shot up to 44.23%. We expect this to turn once $BTC tops out locally and then investors will start rotating back into altcoins. This rotation is likely to take place at some point this month. According to the Blockchain Center’s Altcoin Season Index, we are in the middle of a BTC season. We are now close to historical levels where layering into altcoins may start soon in anticipation of a reversal. Besides, $ETH now enters a zone that previously saw huge trading volumes. At the same time, the No. 2 digital asset is also trying to break through the downward-trending resistance for the third time to start its own trend. However, if $ETH is unable to hold at $2,880, we may revisit 2,750 again.

To deliver more insights into this fast-growing asset class, Cambridge University launched a research initiative, “Cambridge Digital Assets Programme (CDAP)”, in collaboration with the world’s top banking intuitions and private companies. By partnering with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), IMF, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard and Visa, CDAP can collate evidence-based public dialogue on the risk and opportunities in a more systematic and coherent manner. CDAP’s primary goal is to provide the public with greater clarity through data-driven insights and arm key decision-makers with empirical data to navigate the digital assets industry.

Learn more from today’s Trader View video

Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.95T, +1.2% from yesterday

  • $BTC is +2.4% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 21.2M, -0.00023% average
  • $ETH is +0.5% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 6.2M, +0.00321% average
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 44.4%; USDC 29.9%; BUSD 10.3%; UST 7.3%; DAI 5.2%

DeFi TVL: $210.3B (+7.2% over last 24h)

  • $SOL -1.0% in the last 24 hours, +13.3% in the past week
  • $SHIB +3.8% in the last 24 hours, +7.5% in the past week
  • $SAND +1.4% in the last 24 hours, +3.9% in the past week
  • $ENJ -0.0% in the last 24 hours, +7.4% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Stefan von Haenisch & Ethan Fu.

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