Beware of capitulation if April closes below $38.7K

​​$BTC 24 Hour High  $39,495  / Low $37,886  |   $BTC -2.1% Past 24 hours; -7.1% Past 7 days

Good morning. The crypto markets have recovered slightly from a technical rebound, with altcoins outperforming the markets. After dipping to the lowest since mid-March earlier, $BTC climbed above $39,000 to recover the loss and attempted to break through the floor held for mid-October. This is where we have seen the bulk of the trading activities since June 2021. $BTC is also waiting for the final leg of the triangle to be completed, and we expect this to be the final leg lower in the short term. 

As April draws to a close, let’s keep an eye on the 20M EMA – if $BTC’s monthly close is above the critical support level at $38,700, the bull run tends to continue in the next few months; otherwise, capitulation may occur. Besides, the DXY and U.S.10-year bond yield tried to break through key resistance, hovering over the overbought territory on the weekly RSI chart. These indicators have historically been a reliable indicator of an upcoming trend reversal, so investors should closely monitor how these move in the coming week.  

$ETH is in a very similar structure to $BTC, looking for the final leg of the triangle to be completed. $ETH has received a confluence of support factors, but we would like them to get tested. These indicators include the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level between the Nov-high and Jan-low is lining up with the cluster of trading activity on the VPVR, and the upward-sloping support in place since last July. The daily RSI has been trading in an upward channel, and we hope to see this hold in the next few weeks. Our eyes are on the 20M EMA, a good indicator of whether a bull run is over. This important trendline is to be updated in a few days, and we expect this to move under $2,600. If the monthly close is below the 20M EMA, the bull run is likely to be over.

2022 looks to be yet another hot year for crypto investments, with $13 million already raised in the first four months alone, compared to $30 million raised in 2021. It’s worth noting that Dragonfly Capital managed a raise of $650 million in tertiary funding (its third fund to date) when the original target was $500 million. Its previous funds, launched in 2018 and 2021, raised $100 million and $225 million, respectively, with the capital being deployed into 60 companies focused on all stages of crypto/blockchain/tokens and protocols. 

Learn more from today’s Trader View video.

Digital Assets Market

  • Total crypto market capitalization stands at $1.91T, +2.8% from yesterday
  • $BTC is +0.45% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 55.42M, -0.01073% average
  • $ETH is +0.02% at time of writing; 24H liquidations and funding rates: 24.56M, 0.00248%average 
  • Stablecoins market dominance: USDT 44.35%; USDC 26.36%; UST 9.83%; BUSD 9.29%; DAI 4.59%

Alts and DeFi watch:

  • DeFi TVL: $208.47B (+1.42% over last 24 hours)
  • $SOL +3.0% in the last 24 hours, -5.9% in the past week
  • $SHIB +0.2% in the last 24 hours, -6.1% in the past week
  • $SAND +1.5% in the last 24 hours, -11.9% in the past week
  • $ENJ +1.2% in the last 24 hours, -13.7% in the past week

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OSL Trader View is contributed by Hans-Stefan Vonhaenisch & Ethan Fu.

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